AN anticipated increase in electricity demand by another 600 mega watts next year is expected to spur heavy power outages that earlier threatened the country’s economic growth, acting Zesco managing director Cyprian Chitundu warned last week.

According to official data from Zesco Limited, the country’s electricity consumption is expected to increase by as much as 600 mega watts by the end of next year, buoyed by increased output in the mining sector, rallying on the recovering metal prices on the international market.

Latest projections from Zesco indicated that while the country’s total power generation was hovering around 1, 684 mega watts currently, and expected to remain static going into next year, consumption was expected to rise to high as 2, 200 mega watts by end of next year and beyond, premised on the increased industrial related activities.

Zambia currently consumes about 1, 500 mega watts of power, leaving the country with a surplus of close to 200 megawatts while Zesco Limited generates around 1, 646 mega watts of power. Lunsemfwa Hydropower station in Kabwe produces 38 mega watts, Copperbelt Energy Corporation (CEC) produces 80 megawatts of thermal power, electricity which is only made available in cases of emergency power deficit in the mining operations. And according to most analysts, the status quo is expected to remain the same until 2012.

At the height of the global economic crisis which saw the price of copper hitting the bottom low of US $2, 900 per tonne in December last year, most mining related activities slowed down output while some mines were placed on care and maintenance. Copperbelt-based mining, through CEC, slowed down electricity consumption from 40 per cent of Zesco’s output to the current 32 per cent.

With the recent surge in copper prices which have reached almost US $6, 300 per tonne, power consumption was expected to increase, surpassing the 40 per cent previously reached.

North western-based mines are also expected to put further pressure on the restricted power generation facilities, especially as Lumwana Mining Company, Africa’s largest open pit mine, ramp production to meet the projected 170, 000 tonnes of copper per annum.

The mining sector in the country is expected to record an annual average of 13.1 per cent in the next few years while the power generation facilities were almost static with generation expected to be boosted in 2012 when the 360 megawatts Kariba North Bank extension comes on stream.

Other non mining industrial activities such as manufacturing, agriculture and tourism are expected to grow, further putting the country’s limited generation facilities under severe pressure.

Speaking when the Parliamentary Committee on Energy, Environment and Tourism toured the 990-mega watt Kafue Gorge Power station on Saturday, the country’s biggest hydropower station, Chitundu said there was need for the country to look at new generation facilities to help the expected surge in demand for power.

He said increased investments into mini-hydropower as well as expediting planned huge power projects such as the 750 mega watts Kafue Gorge Lower and 120 mega watts Itezhi-tezhi power plants could help the country position itself to meet ever increasing power demand.

“…if we don’t do anything by next year, 2011, 2012, we are seriously staring in the eyes of serious load shedding power rationing,” Chitundu cautioned. “Let’s start those projects seriously and those decisions, we should move on now. And I am talking about projects like Itehi tezhi; Kafue Gorge Lower which is still sitting with government and of course we know they are talking to the World Bank through the International Finance Corporation IFC, let’s develop them…”

Chitundu said the acute power deficits that were expected to climax in 2009 as demand outstripped supply had been postponed by the global economic recession which reduced activity in the country’s economic sectors.

Zambia was seriously hit by power outages that threatened the political and economic stability in the country in the recent months before the global economic recession depressed copper prices, inducing reduced consumption as mining companies scaled down output and some of the Zesco’s rehabilitation machines helped to normalise the situation.

And Parliamentary Committee on Energy, Environment and Tourism chairperson Percy Chanda regretted that despite a reduction in severe power outages, the country was not moving at an impressive pace to boost its power output.

Chanda, who is also opposition Patriotic Front (PF) Kankoyo member of parliament said the country had continued to attract huge foreign direct investments (FDIs) in huge electricity-demanding sectors without dealing with bottlenecks in power generation.

“We are now thinking of oil explorations and this will just put more burden on Zesco,” said Chanda.

At current growth rate, total regional demand for electricity in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) was projected to hit 45,827 MW by the end of 2008; 47,920 MW in 2009; 48,795 MW in 2010; and 50,291 MW in 2011 against net generation of slightly over 45,000MW.

According to recent figures released by the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP), the SADC region required at least US $5.2 billion between 2007 and 2011 to rehabilitate existing power stations and invest in short-term electricity generation projects. SAPP coordinates the planning and operation of electricity power systems among SADC Member States.

Almost all SADC countries embarked on projects to boost their electricity generation.

The initiatives which were being pursued ranged from conventional infrastructure projects to innovations – all in the hope of ensuring southern Africa's long-term energy security.